August 2026: Market Insights
1. The CCP label is necessary, but it isn't sufficient by itself
The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market's Core Carbon Principles have become the market's de facto quality signal. This month, the ICVCM approved three more programmes, BioCarbon Standard, Cercarbono and Plan Vivo, taking the total to 13 approved since evaluations began in March 2024. Programmes covering roughly 95% of cumulative emissions in the voluntary carbon market are now CCP-eligible. Buyers have responded: CCP-labelled credits now command a price premium averaging up to 25% over non-labelled credits.
That is real progress, and it deserves credit. But we'd urge clients not to read the CCP label as a substitute for due diligence, because it isn't designed to be one.
The label operates at programme and category level, not project level. It confirms that a crediting programme has robust governance and that a category of methodology meets a baseline standard. It says nothing about how a specific project was implemented, whether its baseline was set conservatively, or whether the on-the-ground delivery matches what was approved on paper. It doesn't help with location-based risk factors, geopolitical impacts, and having a clear picture of the financial health of the proponents involved. Two projects can carry the same CCP-approved label and sit at very different points on the actual integrity x risk spectrum.
There is also a behavioural risk worth naming: a widely recognised label makes it easier for busy procurement teams to stop asking questions. That is precisely the moment scrutiny should increase, not decrease.
Our take: treat CCP-eligibility as a floor, not a ceiling. With such high programme coverage, assuming CCP = perfect assumes almost all credits come without risk and trade-offs, which isn’t the case. There is no such thing as a "perfect carbon credit", which is why targeted due diligence is essential.
2. Demand signals point up. The market is quietly ramping up
The headline number is a good news story: corporate climate commitments surged 227% in 2025. That coincides with the two biggest standard-setters in corporate climate accounting moving to formally recognise carbon credits as central to achieving Net Zero. SBTi's Corporate Net Zero Standard V2.0, published in June, and ISO's draft Net Zero Aligned Organizations Standard, out for consultation since June and designed to align with it, together give corporates a credible, board-defensible framework to buy at scale, something the market has lacked for years.
The demand implications are significant: with two major standards now embedding carbon credits into Net Zero pathways, a substantial and durable increase in corporate demand for high-quality credits looks increasingly likely over the coming years.
Meanwhile, retirements fell 7% over the same period, a figure that's been read as a sign of market stalling. We'd push back on that. Retirements only tell you what companies did about historical emissions; they say nothing about forward-looking strategy, and in a market that's still overwhelmingly over the counter and conducted behind closed doors, retirement data is a lagging and incomplete indicator at the best of times. More commitments, feeding into standards that require credits over the long term, should translate into more offtake activity for high-quality removals, not more retirements today. That is exactly what we're seeing. The 7% dip doesn't represent a move away from offsetting; it represents the market shifting from spot buying towards forward planning.
The clearest evidence of that shift is the offtake market itself, which operates largely out of public reporting, but is where we're seeing real momentum. Offtakes are buyers locking in supply and price ahead of a demand curve they can already see coming, which lines up precisely with rising commitments and standards that will require credits for good.
Our take: the market is bullish, not stalling, the activity has simply moved to longer-term commitments and out of public view. Buyers who move now on offtakes will secure supply and pricing before that demand wave arrives; buyers who wait for retirement data to convince them will be transacting into a tighter, pricier market of their own making.
3. Word on the street
Nature Broking regularly interacts with UK government departments involved in climate change and carbon market policy. A few things we're picking up from those conversations:
The UK government is highly supportive of a strong, domestic voluntary carbon market, this isn't just tolerance, it's active backing.
There's a clear sense that London is seen as a natural fit to become a world centre for carbon markets, building on its existing strengths in financial services.
Additional frameworks and regulation are likely over time, but the government is wary of moving too early and stifling growth before the market has scaled.
Closer integration between voluntary carbon markets and the UK's compliance mechanisms is looking increasingly likely, and forms part of this broader direction.
Our take: the direction of travel from government is constructive rather than restrictive. Expect measured, growth-friendly policy support, with more structural regulation to follow once the market matures, not before.